A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
